Friday 31 October 2008

How low can the oil price go?

The last global recession the world had was in 2001. Nymex crude oil prices, which had gone above $35 a barrel in September and October 2000, fell briefly below $20 a barrel in late 2001 before recovering in April 2002 to above $26 a barrel.

The oil price required for a marginal cost player to return its cost of capital is $65-75 per barrel.

Economic necessity is often cited as important in the price level. The lowest breakeven oil price that would bring the 2008- 2009 budget into balance in Saudi Arabia is $30 per barrel. The level in the UAE is $40 and in Qatar it is $55. The average breakeven for GCC is $50 per barrel.

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