Friday, 9 October 2009

Ukraine - over the worst

Ukraine's economy is now recovering from a very low bottom, and real economic growth is likely by November. Ukraine's international reserves are at around $29 billion, one quarter of GDP. Ukraine runs no risk of default for the next year, even without IMF money. Its budget deficit is below the limit of 6% of GDP for this year. The bank country's restructuring is proceeding.

The only concern is that without a November IMF disbursement, financing the deficit will present a challenge.

Ukraine is approaching presidential elections. The two dominant presidential candidates are Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, while the voters have given up on the erratic Yushchenko, who regularly vetoes almost all government decisions even when they correspond to his own policies. The conventional wisdom is that Yanukovych will win the first round with a large but not absolute majority, while Tymoshenko is best placed to win the second round.

1 comment:

Tony said...

Ukraine has a long way to go. Most businessmen here believe that it will be summer 2010 at the earliest before things change. The consensus is that there will be a runoff after the election between Tymoshenko and Yanukovich, and that it will take considerable time to sort out whom controls what.