The rating agencies are looking into various GCC institutions and may adjust some ratings. Moody’s believes that governments will intervene before a default occurs, but over the long term particular institutions may not be viable and may be merged or taken in “a sort of orderly bailout”.
Talk of a GCC liquidity crisis is probably more to do with investor confidence than traditional fundamentals. The other issue is transparency and the level of disclosure. Rating government-related entities in the region hinges on the assessment of the level of government backing they might receive, which can be tricky.
Currently there are conflicting rumours about the likelihood of mergers between real estate companies, the role of Abu Dhabi and the scale of Dubai’s government debt.
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